Abstract:

 Global warming has led to a significant increase in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events, especially in northeast China, which is bound to affect the grain output of the three northeastern provinces. Based on historical ground meteorological observation data (1981−2014) and future climate change prediction data (2031−2060), this paper systematically analyzed the spatial−temporal distribution characteristics and future occurrence trends of extreme temperature and precipitation events by defining four extreme temperature indices and three extreme precipitation indices related to crop production. The results showed that the number of low temperature days (CD) decreased, the number of high temperature days (HD), low temperature intensity (CSI) and high temperature intensity (HSI) increased, the number of continuous wet days (CWD) decreased, the number of continuous dry days (CDD) increased, the number of heavy precipitation days (R20) decreased, the number of extreme high temperature days increased significantly and the extreme maximum temperature was the same as the historical stage. The extreme minimum temperature is in a state of warming. In the future, the overall temperature in the crop growing areas of the three provinces in northeast China would continue to rise, the number of continuous wet days would increase, the number of continuous dry and heavy precipitation days would decrease, and the precipitation variability and spatial difference would be large and the fluctuation range would be greater than the historical stage, and the uncertainty of abnormal precipitation would be strengthened, showing a trend of warming and drying, especially in the south and southeast. The results can provide reference for agricultural production in Northeast China to cope with climate change.

Key words: The three northeast provinces, Extreme weather events, Climate change, Grain crops